Trade Tariffs Impact US Port Shipments | Global Commerce

## The Shipping Slowdown: A Big Apple Perspective

### What’s Goin’ On at the Ports?

Who would’ve thought a trade war would have New Yorkers talking about ports? Yet here we are. Donald Trump’s game of tariffs has sparked a nosedive in shipments to major U.S. ports. In Los Angeles, the vessel arrival schedule is [down by almost a third](https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/) compared to last year. Even the Big Apple’s port folks anticipate similar vibes.

### The Shipping Figures Ain’t Pretty

The digits from Port Optimizer show this week’s arrivals are down by roughly 11% from the same week last year. And those container bookings from China? They dropped a staggering 45% by mid-April, according to data from Vizion.

| Statistic | Percentage Change |
|—————————-|———————-|
| Vessel Arrivals (LA) | Down by 11% |
| Container Bookings (China) | Down by 45% |

### The Recession Rumbles

Economists are waving red flags, warning Trump’s tariff tussles might lead to a global trade meltdown. Washington slapped a mean 145% tariff on Chinese imports. A blanket 10% border tax looms over other countries, with a few exceptions. Could this stir up a recession? Many say, “You bet.”

### Big Retail Faces the Music

Chief executives are on edge. Walmart and Target bosses urged Trump, warning that his tariffs could mess up supply chains. Consequences could feature price hikes and barren store shelves. It’s no surprise everyone’s feeling jittery.

### A Glimmer of Hope?

Despite the turmoil, there’s talk of potential progress. Over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at a [possible “path” to a deal with China](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/27/trump-tariffs-china-negotiations) after confabbing with Chinese officials.

### The Gravity of New Orders

Apollo Global Management shows a bleak landscape. New business orders took a nosedive post-Trump’s “liberation day” [announcement](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/02/trump-new-tariffs-liberation-day).

Torsten Sløk, asset manager’s chief economist, explained the trickle-down effects:

– Companies see falling new orders.
– Declining investment plans.
– Rising inventories before tariffs hit.
– Downward revisions on earnings expectations.

### Consumer Confidence and Tourism Take a Hit

Consumers aren’t feeling too peachy either. Confidence levels have tanked, and international travel is on the decline. People rushed to shop before tariffs kicked in, leaving a vacuum in demand.

### The Bigger Picture in Trade

More daily updated shipping stats paint a grim picture. However, the dip might also be the aftershock of pre-inauguration import fever. Companies scrambled to bring in goods before policies changed.

The U.S. trade deficit soared to a [record high in January](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-trade-deficit-hits-record-high-january-imports-surge-2025-03-06/#:~:text=Imports%20soared%2010.0%25%2C%20the%20most,shapes%2C%20which%20are%20probably%20gold.). Companies front-loaded imports ahead of tariff enforcement.

### Economic Forecasts and Fallout

While New Yorkers wonder how this affects them, Kathleen Brooks from XTB says port authorities are bracing for a nosedive in Chinese shipments. [Demand is diving](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/28/uk-banks-brace-for-first-quarter-reports-after-trump-tariff-turmoil). U.S. businesses are swift on the adjustment front too, navigating around tariff-induced hurdles.

Brooks predicts a “major impact” on Chinese enterprises. Yet, China’s planning guru Zhao Chenxin assured confidence in meeting ambitious economic growth targets.

### Are We Heading for a Recession?

Given the San Pedro Bay ports of LA and Long Beach, handling a third of all U.S. seaborne trade, this slowdown would trickle down to trucking demand. Folks claim it could lead to layoffs and a recession. Could empty shelves and layoffs in the distribution and retail spheres be next?

### Krugman’s Take

Paul Krugman, NY’s own Nobel economist, compares the trade collapse to the post-COVID scene. Yet, he emphasizes that, unlike a virus, no vaccine can bail us out of this pickle. It’s all Trump, all the time.

“Three years and three months more of this,” he lamented on Substack.

In the end, this turmoil isn’t just about dollars and cents. Ain’t that the quintessential New York way to call it?