Global Market Concerns Over Economic “Hard Landing” • ISA

## The Dissolution of Neoliberal Globalization

The long-standing neoliberal globalized order appears to be unraveling, yet its collapse does not promise the emergence of a superior alternative. Rather, it’s given rise to the reactionary force of Trumpism, as characterized by trade wars, dismantling of alliances, and undermining the ‘Western bloc’. Alas, the world seems to teeter on the brink of a new era of imperialist strife. The capitalist landscape has notably shifted since the 2008 crisis, posing a genuine risk of uncontrollable spirals.

### US Recession Looms

The Trump administration’s ongoing trade wars have startled many in the financial world. Since the imposition of tariffs, a staggering $4 trillion has dissipated from the stock exchanges. The billionaire class, initially viewing Trump’s actions with optimism, now reassess as economic indicators falter. Consumer confidence tumbles; core inflation has soared from 2.2% in February 2024 to 3.1% in February 2025. To worsen matters, essential goods prices have skyrocketed, with eggs, for instance, spiking by a baffling 58%.

Corporations sense forthcoming threats. Retail entities like Target and Walmart have accordingly revised their profit forecasts for 2025. Airlines such as Delta and American have mirrored sentiments, with the former slashing projections by half. Meanwhile, Southwest has abandoned its notable free-checked-bag policy, signaling collective industry trepidation.

### The Great Game of Trade Wars

The United States wasn’t alone in its tumultuous economical grappling. Trade, historically a lynchpin of prosperity, became embroiled in conflicts across continents. Europe, embroiled in its challenges with Putin, resorted to “military Keynesianism”, focusing on fortifying defenses. The EU’s ambitious “ReArm Europe” tactic aims to funnel a colossal $840 billion towards this end.

However, not everyone is on board. [Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán](https://www.politico.eu/list/politico-28/viktor-orban/) and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico threaten vetoes. Political tensions compound economic fractures as the specter of recession looms global. Even economically sturdy nations like Germany and France face political upheavals, with [Germany’s AfD](https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-afd-party-what-you-need-to-know/a-63820521) and Macron battling dissent.

### China’s Economic Quandary

China, once a robust global economic pillar post-2008, finds itself in dire straits. Its attempted growth through excessive borrowing now yields minimal returns, akin to pursuing an unrequited affection. Between 2009 and 2019, while the nation poured unprecedented amounts of concrete, resulting economic dividends dwindled alarmingly. The nation now confronts the twin demons of public debt and overproduction.

### “Military Keynesianism” in Europe and Canada

Meanwhile, Trump’s isolationist approach prompted stalwart allies like Canada to rethink alliances and bolster defenses. Nationalism buoyed Canada’s Liberal Party, eager to counter tariffs and invest in its sovereignty, especially in the Arctic. Europe mirrored these actions, instigating substantial rearmament plans to reinstate regional security amid threats.

However, this militaristic enthusiasm carries a price. European leaders envisage austerity measures, ominously foreshadowed by [French unions’](https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210421-despite-stiff-resistance-macron-s-labour-reforms-fall-short-of-labour-market-revolution) alarm regarding potential military spending offsets. NATO’s Mark Rutte has provocatively suggested reallocating funds from social welfare, prompting further unrest.

### Trade Wars and Real Warfare

Forebodingly, if historical patterns persist, trade wars risk escalating into genuine conflict. During the Great Depression, tariffs escalated drastically, and Thatcherian isolation loomed large. The shadow of an economic vortex now looms over everyone, recalling past insular policies that bred global discord.

Working populations invariably find themselves dispossessed amid such turmoils, whether through economic or martial skirmishes. Socialists critique both protectionism and capitalist globalization, promoting instead a mutually beneficial global community based on socialist tenets of shared ownership and cooperative planning.