Australian Stock Market Set to Decline Before Retail Sales Data Release

An Empire of Financial Moves

Opening Bell Anticipation

Ah, the buzz of a Gotham morning—we’re bracing for a dip, folks. The local market is set to open lower, with ASX 200 futures nudging down a modest 0.4% to hit 8,312 points. But, it’s not all doom and gloom. Later today, we’ll see the November retail sales figures. Thanks to those swanky Black Friday sales, we’re expecting a 1.2% lift in spending. Sure, it’s not quite as hefty as years gone by, but hey, a rise is a rise.

Rates and Economic Foreseeings

In the aftermath of yesterday’s CPI release, hopes for a February rate cut have made a new friend—optimism! Ivan Colhoun, CreditorWatch’s chief economist, weighed in, highlighting our surprise buddy—the very low unemployment rates. "These strong job vacancy numbers muddle February’s rate decision," he says. However, he hints the board might love unemployment rates even more than squashing inflation. Will they lower rates in February? Well, it’s anyone’s bet, contingent on Q4 CPI numbers along with December’s unemployment and November retail sales.

Markets Abroad

Last night, our pals across the pond showed an unusual mixed performance. The Dow Jones climbed a smidgen at 0.25%, while the S&P 500 tiptoed up 0.16%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq took a leisurely stroll, ending pretty much flat. Notably, US markets will be catching their breath Thursday, honoring the late former President Jimmy Carter.

It’s a rhythmic dance of curiosity and caution as conflicting job data rolls in. The whole town’s gossiping about that potential national economic emergency declaration by Trump to push his tariff agenda. Europe’s no party either; retail took a nosedive while healthcare stocks took a little victory lap.

And for flavor, British gilt yields reached a sizzling high since ’98, driven by whispers of delayed interest cuts, fresh borrowing dimming from October’s budget, and rising US Treasury yields.

The Currency Shuffle

In the currency markets, catch the Euro sliding from $1.0357 to $1.0275, and settle near $1.0310. The Aussie and Japanese yen are throwing shade at the US dollar too, slipping to US62.10 cents and JPY158.45 respectively in late US trading.

Commodities: The Ups, Downs, and Impressive Spins

On the oil front, prices are falling. Thanks to the strong greenback and a surge in US fuel inventories, they’re taking a 1.2% tumble to $76.16/bbl for Brent crude and a 1.3% drop to $73.32/bbl for Nymex crude.

For the curious metal lovers, feast your eyes:

• Copper futures took a joyful 1.6% climb.
• However, aluminum has seen better days, skidding down by 1%.

Amidst the golden sunset, gold futures climb a modest 0.3% to settle near $2,672.40/oz, with spot gold winking near $2,657/oz. And if iron ore is your jam, you might squirm at its 0.1% dip to $97.74/tn, under pressure from China’s steel demand woes.

Small Caps – The Unsung Heroes

Shall we talk small caps? They’re stirring quite the pot in the investment scene. Here’s who’s been making waves:

1. St George Mining Ltd (ASX:SGQ) – Partnered up for some niobium and rare earth action from that jewel of Brazil, the Araxá Project.

2. Lunnon Metals Ltd (ASX:LM8, OTC:LNMLF) – Inked a mining deal with the Ngadju Native Title Aboriginal Corp in Aussie land.

3. Livium Ltd (ASX:LIT, OTC:LMMFF) – Cashed in a cool $800K in R&D tax incentives, courtesy of the ATO, adding to their sweet $1.7 million R&D haul.

4. Mako Gold Ltd (ASX:MKG) – Just like a soap opera, Mako’s tangled in a takeover offer from Aurum Resources Ltd (ASX:AUE), with the promise of 1 Aurum share for every 25.1 Mako shares.

So there you have it; in the bustling world of finance, even the little guys pack a punch. Stay tuned!