Economic Uncertainties in San Diego: An Englishman’s Perspective

Economists in San Diego find themselves in quite the bind this year. The county’s economic forecast, a tradition spanning over four decades, is encountering unprecedented complexities. Be that as it may, San Diego remains at the heart of economic discussions, drawing together scholars, students, and industry leaders keen on deciphering the future.

An Era of Uncertainty

Challenges of Political Influence

Professor Ryan Ratcliff from the University of San Diego remarks on the peculiarity of the times. Typically, predicting economic direction based on political leadership isn’t straightforward. Yet, the Presidency of Donald Trump introduces a new level of unpredictability. Trump’s proposals, like buying Greenland, lack historical precedent. Additionally, the Supreme Court seems poised for an era of deregulation, signalling a stark shift from 20th-century norms.

National Economic Concerns

Ratcliff warns of looming national challenges. Rising national debt and potential insolvency in Social Security and Medicare are troubling aspects. These financial concerns demand the attention of legislators.

San Diego’s Cross-Border Dynamics

Economic Crossroads

Kenia Zamarripa from the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce highlights concerns regarding a cross-border economy. Tijuana’s burgeoning manufacturing sector plays a crucial role. However, Trump’s immigration policies and tariff threats cast shadows. With up to 60,000 Tijuana residents commuting daily to the U.S. for work, as per recent findings, any substantial policy changes could impact livelihoods on both sides of the border.

Housing and the Future of San Diego

High Costs Driving Migration

Daniel Enemark points out glaring economic disparities in San Diego. High housing costs exacerbate poverty affecting 335,000 residents. Young San Diegans in their 20s and 30s are leaving as living expenses soar, prompting Enemark to suggest an increase in housing supply.

A Threat to Vibrancy

“There’s a version of the future where we become more like Dana Point or Santa Barbara,” Ratcliff comments. Such locations are splendid for those with substantial wealth but threaten San Diego’s dynamism and entrepreneurial spirit.

National and Global Economic Perspectives

Feedback from Gen Z

At the economic roundtable, Gen Z financial content creator Kyla Scanlon shared her insights. While highlighting the strength of the labour market and moderated inflation, she expressed concern about the affordability crisis. High housing costs, student loan burdens, and a decline in trust towards institutions are pressing issues. According to the Harvard Youth Poll, trust in major American institutions is waning among young people, with the United Nations as a rare exception.

Looking Ahead

San Diego’s economists and business leaders face a Herculean task as they navigate this period of unpredictability. As conversations continue, the county remains a focal point for discussions influencing local and national economic landscapes.

Originally Published: 17 January 2025 at 12:49 PM PST